Potential of Bitcoin
Scarce, regulated and still early.
Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that combines a fixed maximum supply, a network without an issuer and broad regulated access. That gives Bitcoin the best chance of a lasting role as a digital store of value, alongside gold.
Why Bitcoin
"Bitcoin has a large and unique potential for wealth growth."Vision of the fund
Proof instead of trust. Bitcoin is the first digital money without a central issuer. Satoshi Nakamoto described the idea in 2008, in the middle of the financial crisis; the network has run almost without interruption since January 2009. Transactions are recorded in a public ledger maintained by thousands of independent computers. No bank, government or company can change the rules unilaterally.
Scarce by design. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoin. Issuance halves every four years; supply growth (0.85% in 2024) is already below that of gold and the dollar.
A commodity, not a security. Bitcoin has no issuer and is treated in the US as a commodity, like gold. That made the spot ETF possible: a listed fund that holds the bitcoin itself. Bitcoin's market value is around 57% of the total crypto market, and within crypto it is the only asset with an established role as a store of value.
Regulated access. With MiCA, Europe has had a complete framework since the end of 2024. Worldwide, 34 countries have permitted bitcoin ETFs or ETPs.
Digital gold in the making. With a market value of around $1.8 trillion, Bitcoin is roughly 6% of the value of gold. River estimates the long-term potential at around 25% of global wealth, versus around 0.2% today. That is a scenario, not a price target, but it shows the room for growth.
Adoption
New technology spreads along an S-curve. After a long run-up, acceleration follows once infrastructure, institutions and regulation fall into place. River estimated Bitcoin adoption in 2025 at around 3% of its full potential, comparable to the internet in 1990.
Since then, institutional inflows have continued strongly. Keystone21 estimates adoption at 10 to 15% by the end of 2026: still early on the curve, at the transition to the early adopters. For comparison: in the United States, around 14% of people already own bitcoin.
Characteristics of Bitcoin's market adoption
Wall Street is stepping in. Bitcoin is shifting from individuals to institutions. 60% of the largest US banks are building bitcoin products, 90% of the top-50 US wealth advisers have a bitcoin allocation, and Vanguard now also offers access. River expects that, if this trend continues, institutions will own the majority of all bitcoin within ten years.
Adoption continues, even when the price falls. Between late 2025 and early 2026 the price fell from around $125,000 to below $70,000, while the number of listed companies with bitcoin on their balance sheet rose from 74 to 194 and the Czech National Bank became the first central bank to add bitcoin to its reserves.
The risks remain significant
Since 2014 Bitcoin has seen four declines of more than 50%, each followed by around three years of recovery. The existential risk of the network has decreased sharply; the price risk has not. That is exactly why we do not invest passively, but with the Keystone-line.
Driving forces behind the growth potential
In brief. Each of these developments is worked out in more detail in our research.
- Continuing ETF inflows, with distributors such as Vanguard, Bank of America and Wells Fargo opening the products to their clients.
- The next halving, expected in April 2028: issuance of new bitcoin halves again. New supply becomes scarcer while demand grows.
- Supply held by long-term holders. ETFs and listed companies together already hold more than 9% of all bitcoin that will ever exist.
- Governments and central banks adding bitcoin to their reserves, such as the US and the Czech Republic.
- Access for pension money, for example through US 401(k) plans.
- From 0.01% to a 1 to 5% allocation. Large asset managers advise a growing allocation of 1 to 5%; (professional) investors are still far below that.
- A growing financial infrastructure: stablecoins, tokenisation and bank custody make the technology more familiar.
- Embedding through laws and regulations. Regulation of crypto and digital assets has grown strongly over the past five years: MiCA in Europe, the SEC's approval of spot ETFs and the GENIUS Act in the US. In addition, the Basel Committee is reviewing the risk weight of bitcoin on bank balance sheets.
Sources: River (2025, 2026), SEC, ESMA, BIS, CoinGecko, The Block, Crowdfund Insider.
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